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Natural Gas Demand for Guangdong LNG Project

        -Planed for the cities covered by the first phase of the project
Description:
China's first LNG project launched in 2002 in Guangdong province, which involves the construction of a LNG import terminal and high-pressure gas pipelines. This project is shared by CNOOC (33%), Guangdong Province (31%), Hong Kong (6%), and BP (30%).  The first phase of the project will be completed in 2005, mainly supplying to Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Foshan, and Dongguang city areas in Guangdong Province. 

These cities will sign the "Pay or Take" contract with the upstream LNG supplier.  As the whole LNG project is an integrated supply chain, so the unreliable natural gas demand is not only increase the risk for downstream cities but also ultimately affect the upstream suppliers. 

This paper provides a detailed natural gas demand forecast for the each city and each end user sector from 2006 to 2015 based on the collected feasibility reports and plans conducted by the each city.  The disfavored and favored factors which will decrease and increase natural gas demand are also analyzed to adjust the original planed natural gas demand. 

Table of Content:
1. Current Gas Fuel Consumption in Guangdong in Year 2000
2. Natural Gas Demand Forecast for the Cities Covered by the First Phase of Guangdong LNG Project
    2.1  Shenzhen City
       (1) Residential natural gas demand
       (2) Commercial natural gas demand
       (3) Industrial natural gas demand
       (4) Natural gas demand for the gas fueled air conditioning
       (5) Natural gas demand for electric power generation
     2.2 Guangzhou City (Original Urban Area)
       (1) Residential natural gas demand
       (2) Commercial natural gad demand
       (3) Industrial natural gas demand
       (4) Natural gas demand for the gas fueled air conditioning
     2.3 Foshan City Urban Area
       (1) Residential natural gas demand
       (2) Commercial natural gas demand
       (3) Industrial natural gas demand
    2.4 Nanhai City
       (1) Residential and commercial natural gas demand
       (2) Industrial natural gas demand
    2.5 Shunde City
    2.6 Dongguan City
3. Natural Gas Demand Summary and Adjustment
    3.1 The Disfavored Factors Analysis and Adjusted Lower Gas Demand
    3.2 The Favored Factors Analysis and Adjusted Higher Gas Demand
    3.3 Natural Gas Demand Summary
Reference Accounts:
This report is provided for the authorities of the cities covered by the first phase of Guangdong LNG project.  This report not only provide a reference for the city government to reduce the risk of singing the "Pay or Take" contract with the upstream suppliers but also will benefit for the upstream suppliers to prepare the appropriate LNG supply.  As Guangdong province is the largest LPG importer in China, so it is important for the current LPG suppliers to find how many LPG will be replaced by these cities.  The natural gas equipment and appliance manufacturers also can find the potential equipment market scale based on the natural gas availability to these cities.
 
Publication: June 2003
(39 pages, MS Word Format )
 
Language: English
Price: US$ 397
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